Sensitivity analysis

Cloetta’s sales and earnings are impacted by a multiple of factors.

The effects on profit before tax of changes in selected key factors are shown below. These are estimated effects which could occur with an isolated change in each variable and should be interpreted with caution.

Cloetta’s development is affected by a multiple of factors, which include those accounted for in the section Risks and risk management.

The key factors below shows the hypothetical effect on Cloetta’s profit before tax if some factors change.

The calculations are hypothetical and should neither be considered as an indicator of either of these factors being more or less likely to change, nor the size of the magnitude of the change. Real changes and their effects may be larger or smaller than presented below. In addition, it is likely that the real changes will affect other items, and that actions by Cloetta and others, as a result of the changes, may come to affect other items.

The sensitivity analysis should therefore be interpreted with caution.

  • If the Swedish krona had weakened/strengthened by 10 per cent against the euro, the year’s profit before tax would have been around SEK 50m higher/lower.
  • In 2018, if the interest rate had been 1 percentage point higher with all other variables held constant, profit before tax for the year would have been approximately SEK 5m lower. If the interest rate had been 1 percentage point lower with all other  variables held constant, profit before tax for the year would have been approximately SEK 1m higher.

  • If the average raw material prices had been 10 per cent higher/lower at 31 December 2018, profit before tax for the year would have been around SEK 150m lower/higher.

Read more about the statement of risks based on probability and impact in the documents below.

 

Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analysis Change Profit before tax
Currency risk    
If the swedish krona is weakened/strengthened againts the euro -/+ 10% -/+ SEK 50m
Interest rate risk    
Interest rate +/- 1% SEK -5m /SEK1m
Commodity price risk    
Average raw material prices +/- 10% -/+ SEK 150m

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